* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRENE AL092011 08/26/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 85 87 87 89 84 79 63 43 28 21 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 85 85 87 87 69 61 42 31 27 29 27 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 85 83 83 84 69 64 47 31 29 30 32 36 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 12 20 15 31 45 62 67 54 48 29 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -3 -6 -1 -2 5 3 -3 -2 -5 -4 -6 SHEAR DIR 201 188 224 205 164 209 193 206 213 220 215 242 254 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.4 27.9 26.4 23.2 16.9 15.2 9.4 9.1 8.8 10.9 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 149 143 136 120 96 76 74 69 69 69 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 130 127 121 116 102 85 72 71 68 68 68 68 200 MB T (C) -49.9 -49.7 -49.8 -49.4 -48.3 -48.0 -47.5 -47.9 -48.3 -49.7 -50.8 -50.8 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 7 6 9 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 62 60 55 54 52 53 43 37 42 48 47 46 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 41 40 43 40 43 41 46 42 35 28 28 22 22 850 MB ENV VOR 84 100 93 113 139 155 154 150 130 114 134 193 223 200 MB DIV 89 88 83 98 125 101 149 89 70 56 57 43 21 700-850 TADV 9 9 8 10 4 0 -15 -27 6 -18 -80 -26 -5 LAND (KM) 274 199 106 28 -33 14 -56 -161 -1 -158 441 989 1526 LAT (DEG N) 31.2 32.3 33.4 34.5 35.6 38.1 41.2 45.2 49.9 53.9 57.0 58.7 59.4 LONG(DEG W) 77.5 77.3 77.1 76.8 76.4 75.1 73.4 70.7 66.9 61.0 53.0 43.4 32.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 13 15 19 25 26 27 27 27 27 HEAT CONTENT 51 40 19 2 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 12 CX,CY: 0/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -5. -13. -22. -30. -37. -41. -44. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -11. -15. -16. -17. -17. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 15. 16. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -17. -19. -20. -21. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -15. -19. -23. -26. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 3. 0. -6. -12. -13. -18. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 2. 4. -1. -6. -22. -42. -57. -64. -74. -76. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092011 IRENE 08/26/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092011 IRENE 08/26/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092011 IRENE 08/26/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 10( 19) 0( 19) 0( 19) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)