* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN AL102011 08/26/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 38 39 39 39 40 36 32 28 26 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 38 39 39 39 40 36 32 28 26 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 34 36 41 43 41 39 37 35 32 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 5 1 5 7 17 22 27 24 33 36 43 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 5 1 0 2 5 2 0 3 1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 66 51 57 293 276 276 280 279 276 256 254 256 246 SST (C) 26.3 26.2 26.1 26.0 25.9 25.9 26.1 26.3 26.5 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 115 114 113 112 111 111 113 115 117 120 120 120 119 ADJ. POT. INT. 106 105 104 103 102 102 103 103 105 109 109 108 106 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -53.8 -54.1 -54.0 -54.4 -54.6 -54.8 -54.7 -54.7 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 46 46 50 48 49 47 47 44 44 46 42 45 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 11 11 10 8 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 73 80 81 79 77 50 28 10 11 12 -6 -31 -54 200 MB DIV 22 11 0 15 10 1 -7 5 17 5 10 -3 23 700-850 TADV -3 -1 0 0 -1 3 3 4 5 9 11 15 10 LAND (KM) 1782 1830 1880 1931 1983 2099 2181 2165 2146 2137 2131 2160 2154 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.8 16.2 16.7 17.2 18.1 18.9 19.5 20.0 20.8 21.8 22.8 23.9 LONG(DEG W) 34.1 34.6 35.0 35.5 35.9 36.9 38.2 39.2 40.1 41.3 43.0 44.4 45.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 8 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 2 1 1 0 0 0 1 3 5 9 12 9 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 19. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 6. 3. 0. -4. -8. -13. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 6. 2. -2. -4. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102011 TEN 08/26/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 11.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102011 TEN 08/26/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)