* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912011 08/26/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 32 32 30 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 32 32 30 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 29 28 26 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 24 45 47 50 53 52 42 31 36 40 34 35 56 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -5 -2 0 -1 6 6 6 10 7 5 4 SHEAR DIR 347 360 13 18 22 44 61 102 161 198 210 308 324 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.6 28.1 28.2 25.2 17.2 11.6 15.9 16.6 POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 146 146 148 146 140 142 111 79 74 79 80 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 126 127 127 128 127 124 125 99 76 72 76 76 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.1 -52.6 -51.5 -50.9 -50.6 -50.5 -50.7 -50.2 -50.5 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 11 11 12 8 4 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 39 42 45 49 52 54 50 46 36 35 34 47 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 3 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -64 -71 -71 -67 -63 -56 -21 7 -49 -50 -18 18 28 200 MB DIV -16 -23 -23 -22 -28 -22 6 -8 19 6 -1 9 4 700-850 TADV 5 1 2 2 -2 -2 5 -26 -10 -43 -82 46 94 LAND (KM) 1153 1126 1107 1121 1144 1161 934 720 408 192 270 1351 852 LAT (DEG N) 27.4 27.6 27.8 28.2 28.6 30.0 32.6 36.1 39.9 43.9 47.5 49.4 49.2 LONG(DEG W) 60.2 61.2 62.1 63.0 63.8 65.3 66.4 66.2 64.5 59.6 49.2 34.5 21.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 9 11 16 18 23 34 45 46 42 HEAT CONTENT 28 32 33 29 28 16 19 38 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 21. 21. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 4. 1. -6. -15. -22. -27. -29. -30. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -8. -11. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -7. -14. -21. -27. -31. -34. -41. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912011 INVEST 08/26/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 43.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -22.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 16.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912011 INVEST 08/26/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912011 INVEST 08/26/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)