* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN AL102011 08/27/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 25 26 25 25 24 20 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 25 26 25 25 24 20 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 24 24 25 26 26 25 24 23 21 18 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 6 9 12 20 24 27 33 35 37 35 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 3 0 1 2 3 1 0 2 0 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 72 342 305 284 285 271 279 273 262 262 260 267 261 SST (C) 26.1 26.0 25.9 25.8 25.8 25.9 26.0 26.2 26.5 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 113 112 111 110 110 111 112 114 117 119 120 119 118 ADJ. POT. INT. 104 103 102 102 101 101 101 103 105 107 107 107 104 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 -54.1 -54.0 -54.2 -54.0 -54.5 -54.3 -54.5 -54.3 -54.4 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 8 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 49 50 50 48 47 45 44 45 48 45 48 46 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 10 10 9 7 6 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 76 76 78 76 67 40 20 13 16 -21 -51 -87 -92 200 MB DIV 1 0 5 6 2 9 -15 -3 2 -11 -10 -5 -26 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 0 1 4 5 6 12 16 28 20 11 LAND (KM) 1761 1805 1850 1903 1956 2081 2183 2194 2170 2167 2178 2212 2281 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.2 16.6 17.1 17.6 18.4 19.0 19.6 20.2 21.0 21.9 22.9 24.2 LONG(DEG W) 33.9 34.3 34.7 35.2 35.6 36.7 37.8 38.9 40.0 41.1 42.3 43.5 44.6 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 5 9 9 9 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 17. 20. 22. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 6. 2. -2. -7. -12. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -5. -9. -11. -12. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102011 TEN 08/27/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102011 TEN 08/27/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)