* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912011 08/27/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 31 31 28 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 31 31 28 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 28 27 25 21 18 16 15 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 38 44 49 50 54 42 29 29 42 55 61 55 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -2 0 -1 9 5 2 2 2 1 6 2 SHEAR DIR 3 12 17 23 36 50 70 140 190 209 225 237 283 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.4 27.9 28.2 23.2 17.2 13.4 16.0 19.7 POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 148 148 148 143 137 142 96 77 75 79 87 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 127 128 128 129 125 120 123 86 73 73 76 82 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -53.2 -52.8 -52.2 -52.0 -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 5 3 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 45 45 48 51 54 54 46 45 40 40 44 43 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -68 -73 -61 -54 -50 -55 -16 -45 -74 -93 -107 -72 -33 200 MB DIV -28 -39 -35 -15 -16 -9 23 14 11 11 7 -6 -29 700-850 TADV 0 2 2 -3 -2 -5 -4 -3 -16 -28 -54 -130 -21 LAND (KM) 1119 1103 1096 1130 1155 1040 829 606 362 88 32 783 1555 LAT (DEG N) 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.5 29.0 30.8 33.5 36.8 40.3 43.9 47.0 48.4 46.3 LONG(DEG W) 61.3 62.2 63.1 64.0 64.8 66.2 67.2 67.3 66.5 62.8 54.7 42.3 29.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 9 10 13 15 17 19 27 37 42 44 HEAT CONTENT 32 33 29 28 26 13 15 11 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 20. 20. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 4. 1. -5. -13. -19. -27. -32. -36. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. 0. 2. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -13. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -7. -13. -19. -27. -34. -37. -39. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912011 INVEST 08/27/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 47.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -26.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 14.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912011 INVEST 08/27/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912011 INVEST 08/27/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)