* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRENE AL092011 08/27/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 79 80 80 77 71 56 38 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 79 80 80 77 49 32 25 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 80 79 80 80 78 51 32 32 29 31 32 36 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 12 10 16 28 44 62 71 67 64 48 35 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -8 -1 0 0 9 4 -3 -3 -6 0 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 207 198 180 176 198 198 200 209 216 229 246 268 268 SST (C) 28.7 28.4 27.9 27.1 26.1 22.0 16.0 15.3 9.5 9.7 10.1 11.7 12.7 POT. INT. (KT) 148 143 137 127 117 91 75 74 69 69 70 71 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 121 116 109 102 82 71 70 67 68 68 68 69 200 MB T (C) -49.6 -49.6 -48.8 -48.7 -48.9 -48.4 -47.8 -48.3 -49.8 -50.1 -50.0 -49.1 -49.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 8 7 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 58 57 54 54 55 47 49 52 52 51 50 53 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 42 39 40 41 40 44 41 33 26 25 21 20 19 850 MB ENV VOR 81 95 114 124 126 133 142 118 102 124 164 200 163 200 MB DIV 88 107 130 106 86 158 82 84 66 64 35 21 25 700-850 TADV 1 0 4 0 0 0 -77 -57 -125 -106 -67 -9 -1 LAND (KM) 139 46 18 64 36 -78 -201 -18 -47 473 1057 1358 801 LAT (DEG N) 33.4 34.5 35.6 37.0 38.4 41.9 46.3 50.4 53.9 56.1 57.1 57.6 57.9 LONG(DEG W) 76.6 76.2 75.7 75.2 74.6 72.5 69.2 64.6 58.4 50.5 40.7 30.7 20.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 15 17 22 26 26 25 26 27 27 27 HEAT CONTENT 36 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 12 CX,CY: 4/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -9. -17. -26. -32. -38. -41. -43. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -10. -15. -19. -21. -22. -23. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 16. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -16. -18. -20. -22. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -18. -22. -26. -29. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. -2. -8. -15. -17. -20. -22. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 12. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 0. -3. -9. -24. -42. -59. -67. -77. -84. -87. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092011 IRENE 08/27/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092011 IRENE 08/27/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092011 IRENE 08/27/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 7( 14) 6( 19) 0( 19) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)