* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912011 08/27/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 31 31 30 27 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 31 31 30 27 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 28 26 24 22 21 20 23 27 26 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 48 47 50 45 36 21 27 46 55 65 74 52 61 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 -1 0 5 2 2 3 1 0 8 10 -7 SHEAR DIR 18 21 32 41 43 67 166 207 211 220 230 260 295 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.5 27.8 27.7 24.2 17.3 17.6 10.7 15.6 16.6 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 150 148 145 136 135 101 76 81 73 78 80 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 130 132 130 129 119 116 88 72 77 72 75 76 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.8 -52.4 -51.8 -51.7 -50.8 -50.7 -51.4 -52.2 -51.7 -51.3 -50.8 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 11 12 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 47 48 52 55 54 49 47 43 49 51 53 49 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -65 -56 -45 -51 -47 11 -28 -37 -49 -49 -39 59 60 200 MB DIV -34 -23 -15 -23 -13 23 3 19 20 23 24 -1 -4 700-850 TADV 1 -5 -5 -4 -6 -7 -8 0 -13 -35 -93 -97 23 LAND (KM) 1077 1108 1117 1113 980 697 512 231 158 -11 206 1493 589 LAT (DEG N) 27.9 28.4 28.8 29.7 30.6 33.3 36.3 39.5 42.6 45.7 48.8 50.0 49.2 LONG(DEG W) 63.4 64.3 65.2 66.2 67.1 68.8 69.9 70.1 68.5 61.8 50.2 32.5 17.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 11 12 14 15 16 16 22 36 50 54 50 HEAT CONTENT 29 28 24 19 12 6 25 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 18. 18. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. -1. -9. -17. -25. -32. -37. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -5. -9. -12. -16. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -9. -17. -25. -34. -38. -43. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912011 INVEST 08/27/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 45.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -21.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 10.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912011 INVEST 08/27/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912011 INVEST 08/27/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)