* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRENE AL092011 08/27/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 76 76 76 74 65 48 32 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 74 75 74 51 32 26 29 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 71 71 71 51 32 33 30 31 30 32 35 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 14 26 29 37 48 64 62 61 52 45 29 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 -5 4 10 9 -4 0 -4 3 0 0 -5 SHEAR DIR 191 174 210 199 189 199 212 217 229 250 275 264 228 SST (C) 28.0 27.2 26.3 24.6 22.6 16.2 15.3 9.9 9.7 10.0 11.6 12.3 12.3 POT. INT. (KT) 137 128 119 105 94 75 74 69 69 69 68 65 63 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 109 103 93 84 71 70 68 68 68 66 62 60 200 MB T (C) -49.3 -49.5 -49.9 -49.8 -49.0 -48.5 -48.7 -49.4 -50.3 -50.5 -49.5 -49.1 -48.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 5 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 51 51 53 54 50 51 50 54 54 57 54 69 73 GFS VTEX (KT) 40 40 40 40 42 42 35 28 25 23 20 20 21 850 MB ENV VOR 112 130 140 140 149 159 132 111 136 157 173 184 222 200 MB DIV 102 122 125 135 141 77 89 69 72 28 15 40 37 700-850 TADV 3 -1 8 7 -18 -58 -47 -94 -75 -70 0 -4 -4 LAND (KM) -22 33 37 20 -94 -180 -16 -99 468 1030 1406 1137 1113 LAT (DEG N) 35.5 36.8 38.1 39.9 41.7 46.0 50.3 53.7 56.1 57.3 57.6 58.1 58.9 LONG(DEG W) 76.3 75.6 74.8 73.9 73.0 69.8 65.4 59.2 50.6 41.3 31.5 26.7 25.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 17 19 22 25 25 26 27 26 20 8 5 HEAT CONTENT 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 11 CX,CY: 2/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 711 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -3. -6. -13. -21. -27. -33. -37. -39. -41. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -11. -15. -18. -19. -21. -21. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. 17. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -14. -16. -18. -20. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -15. -20. -24. -27. -30. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -5. -11. -14. -17. -20. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 14. 14. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. -1. -10. -27. -43. -56. -66. -76. -80. -79. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092011 IRENE 08/27/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 125.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092011 IRENE 08/27/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092011 IRENE 08/27/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 5( 5) 0( 5) 0( 5) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)