* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912011 08/27/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 30 30 27 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 30 30 27 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 28 27 25 23 22 20 21 25 25 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 47 49 45 38 30 16 37 56 65 82 94 71 65 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 0 3 5 2 3 0 0 1 -7 11 3 SHEAR DIR 25 34 44 51 57 121 185 203 217 221 232 254 284 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.2 27.6 26.6 20.0 15.8 15.8 10.9 12.9 14.7 POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 147 145 141 134 122 82 75 76 73 75 77 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 129 129 128 125 117 106 75 71 72 72 73 74 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.3 -51.9 -51.6 -51.1 -50.5 -50.8 -51.3 -51.4 -50.9 -51.0 -51.0 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 12 12 9 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 50 54 56 54 55 50 48 43 52 62 60 56 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -54 -43 -46 -47 -17 -16 -7 -46 0 -7 -28 82 88 200 MB DIV -29 -22 -22 -18 17 1 25 15 21 20 17 1 -4 700-850 TADV -7 -3 -5 -8 8 -6 -16 -19 5 -44 -130 -152 25 LAND (KM) 1102 1134 1131 990 853 623 369 75 22 45 335 1329 606 LAT (DEG N) 28.3 29.0 29.6 30.7 31.8 34.8 38.1 41.6 45.0 48.5 51.4 52.5 52.3 LONG(DEG W) 64.3 65.2 66.0 66.9 67.8 69.1 69.9 69.5 65.5 59.3 50.1 35.2 19.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 13 15 17 17 19 25 30 39 48 49 HEAT CONTENT 28 24 20 12 11 11 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 15. 17. 17. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -8. -17. -28. -37. -44. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -14. -17. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -10. -18. -28. -38. -44. -50. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912011 INVEST 08/27/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 41.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 14.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912011 INVEST 08/27/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912011 INVEST 08/27/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)