* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRENE AL092011 08/28/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 69 68 67 62 51 38 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 69 68 48 36 30 29 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 70 69 50 36 30 30 32 30 31 34 40 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 19 25 30 37 57 60 63 63 62 46 29 17 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 9 5 0 -5 -1 -1 -3 -4 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 170 206 212 199 201 201 208 219 229 236 236 187 110 SST (C) 27.3 26.3 25.0 22.5 18.4 15.6 12.5 8.3 9.3 9.8 10.8 11.4 11.6 POT. INT. (KT) 129 119 108 93 79 74 70 68 68 68 67 66 65 ADJ. POT. INT. 110 102 95 84 74 71 68 67 67 66 65 63 63 200 MB T (C) -49.3 -49.6 -49.9 -49.2 -48.8 -48.6 -49.3 -50.2 -50.1 -49.5 -48.2 -47.4 -47.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 4 2 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 53 55 52 48 45 47 46 53 60 60 68 75 78 GFS VTEX (KT) 40 40 39 42 42 39 34 27 23 22 20 22 22 850 MB ENV VOR 119 126 134 147 164 166 142 138 146 179 192 202 221 200 MB DIV 105 109 144 144 117 73 61 56 53 45 44 55 11 700-850 TADV -1 4 17 1 -18 -51 -76 -83 -91 -39 -14 -5 8 LAND (KM) 16 20 5 -97 -121 -31 -255 127 614 1095 1543 1284 1108 LAT (DEG N) 36.7 38.2 39.7 41.8 43.8 48.5 52.6 55.5 57.2 58.4 59.4 60.4 61.5 LONG(DEG W) 75.7 75.0 74.2 73.0 71.8 68.3 63.8 57.5 49.2 41.0 33.2 27.8 24.1 STM SPEED (KT) 13 16 20 22 24 26 24 24 24 22 18 12 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 13 CX,CY: 4/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -14. -20. -26. -30. -34. -36. -37. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -12. -17. -22. -22. -23. -22. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 17. 16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -16. -19. -21. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -17. -22. -26. -29. -32. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 1. 1. -1. -6. -13. -16. -18. -20. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 15. 15. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -8. -19. -32. -47. -60. -66. -72. -76. -79. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092011 IRENE 08/28/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 123.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092011 IRENE 08/28/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092011 IRENE 08/28/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 3( 7) 0( 7) 0( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)