* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912011 08/28/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 31 31 30 26 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 31 31 30 26 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 28 26 24 22 20 25 27 26 26 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 49 48 45 35 30 25 43 69 79 89 94 70 62 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 0 4 3 1 5 4 -4 -5 -12 0 4 SHEAR DIR 37 46 51 63 77 145 199 207 219 227 241 253 266 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.9 24.6 15.5 17.9 12.7 13.1 14.0 14.3 POT. INT. (KT) 148 145 145 141 137 138 105 73 79 73 75 76 76 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 126 126 123 119 119 92 69 74 70 73 74 73 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.2 -52.2 -51.6 -51.3 -51.1 -51.4 -51.5 -51.5 -51.4 -50.9 -50.2 -49.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 12 11 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 54 57 55 55 52 50 50 53 54 54 50 45 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -45 -49 -56 -29 -10 -36 -35 -21 -23 -57 -58 58 40 200 MB DIV -20 -30 -15 0 11 23 26 26 13 8 1 17 20 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -7 6 8 -9 -6 -13 -35 -59 -124 -107 -24 LAND (KM) 1160 1142 1036 912 801 627 287 91 11 3 679 1350 497 LAT (DEG N) 29.1 29.9 30.6 31.9 33.1 36.1 39.5 43.2 46.6 49.4 51.4 52.2 53.4 LONG(DEG W) 64.9 65.7 66.4 67.1 67.7 68.4 68.6 66.9 62.1 54.9 44.5 30.1 17.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 12 14 14 16 18 21 26 31 40 42 38 HEAT CONTENT 24 18 14 15 13 26 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 15. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 1. -9. -20. -32. -42. -49. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -8. -12. -16. -19. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -4. -14. -25. -36. -46. -53. -58. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912011 INVEST 08/28/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 41.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 7.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912011 INVEST 08/28/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912011 INVEST 08/28/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)