* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922011 08/28/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 32 36 46 55 62 68 73 76 79 79 V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 32 36 46 55 62 68 73 76 79 79 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 25 29 35 41 46 52 58 64 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 12 11 8 9 12 13 14 18 24 34 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 0 7 6 10 11 3 0 -1 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 76 99 110 82 123 99 126 128 112 101 87 71 66 SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.5 27.7 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 127 127 128 131 133 139 138 137 138 140 139 137 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 126 128 131 135 141 140 139 138 139 135 131 130 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.8 -54.6 -54.2 -54.5 -54.4 -54.0 -54.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 76 79 80 81 78 75 74 70 72 68 68 62 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 9 10 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 46 63 78 85 87 78 76 75 89 107 106 99 200 MB DIV 133 129 104 118 114 71 108 42 59 47 70 90 121 700-850 TADV 4 5 4 0 10 7 5 4 5 11 10 12 10 LAND (KM) 362 470 582 699 818 1085 1341 1604 1594 1514 1439 1396 1436 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.2 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.0 10.0 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.6 9.4 9.8 LONG(DEG W) 19.5 20.6 21.7 22.9 24.0 26.5 28.9 31.4 33.5 35.3 36.6 37.4 37.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 12 12 12 11 9 8 5 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 10 10 11 13 19 17 21 22 24 26 33 35 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 34. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 1. -2. -5. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 12. 14. 16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 16. 26. 35. 42. 48. 53. 56. 59. 59. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922011 INVEST 08/28/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 119.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922011 INVEST 08/28/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED