* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRENE AL092011 08/28/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 63 61 59 54 42 26 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 53 43 34 31 27 29 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 56 45 34 31 29 30 30 28 29 33 38 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 24 35 41 53 52 67 64 64 57 45 26 15 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 8 6 6 -7 -3 -5 -2 0 0 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 206 209 203 199 197 210 219 224 231 238 230 218 230 SST (C) 26.4 24.8 22.7 18.1 16.4 15.1 9.2 9.1 8.7 10.3 11.1 11.4 11.7 POT. INT. (KT) 120 107 94 79 76 74 68 69 68 67 66 65 65 ADJ. POT. INT. 104 94 85 74 72 70 67 67 66 65 64 63 62 200 MB T (C) -49.3 -49.5 -49.3 -49.1 -49.1 -48.7 -49.2 -50.3 -49.8 -48.6 -47.9 -48.1 -48.9 TH_E DEV (C) 4 2 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 57 54 49 47 49 48 51 53 60 65 62 64 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 39 37 40 43 40 34 26 24 24 22 21 19 17 850 MB ENV VOR 127 122 148 149 150 130 109 123 158 161 154 185 182 200 MB DIV 105 124 141 111 95 72 78 64 63 47 64 67 44 700-850 TADV 5 2 1 -44 -42 -29 -68 -87 -94 -48 -10 -6 13 LAND (KM) 21 0 -109 -126 -220 -39 -111 407 921 1367 1433 1208 1046 LAT (DEG N) 38.1 39.9 41.7 44.0 46.3 50.5 54.0 56.6 58.4 59.6 60.2 60.8 61.5 LONG(DEG W) 75.0 74.2 73.3 71.7 70.1 65.5 60.1 53.0 44.4 36.9 30.7 26.3 22.9 STM SPEED (KT) 17 19 22 26 26 25 24 24 22 18 13 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 15 CX,CY: 5/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -9. -15. -20. -25. -28. -30. -32. -33. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -17. -23. -24. -25. -25. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 18. 20. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -11. -13. -14. -17. -19. -21. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -10. -13. -18. -23. -27. -31. -34. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 0. -4. -11. -14. -14. -16. -17. -19. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -11. -23. -39. -49. -59. -66. -73. -78. -81. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092011 IRENE 08/28/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 41.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 115.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092011 IRENE 08/28/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092011 IRENE 08/28/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)