* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912011 08/28/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 31 31 29 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 31 31 29 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 28 26 24 22 20 24 24 25 27 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 52 43 38 34 27 35 46 60 42 39 40 47 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -8 0 3 5 5 0 6 9 13 4 7 -1 9 SHEAR DIR 47 52 59 74 93 152 192 200 220 263 292 274 258 SST (C) 28.6 28.3 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.1 17.7 14.3 12.2 12.3 13.2 13.5 13.2 POT. INT. (KT) 146 142 139 139 139 129 78 75 74 73 72 71 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 124 122 122 123 114 74 72 72 71 69 68 68 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -51.9 -51.6 -51.2 -51.2 -51.3 -51.5 -51.1 -51.6 -52.6 -52.0 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 8 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 56 57 58 54 50 44 44 51 55 54 50 48 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -54 -59 -43 -18 -42 -53 -49 -33 42 59 27 -27 -43 200 MB DIV -34 -18 6 3 -11 6 37 35 37 -14 0 17 40 700-850 TADV -1 -5 4 1 -15 -11 -44 -139 -165 -33 16 41 16 LAND (KM) 1172 1066 969 910 809 511 147 -11 535 1397 958 521 280 LAT (DEG N) 29.7 30.9 32.0 33.6 35.2 38.9 43.3 47.7 51.4 53.5 54.4 56.0 58.6 LONG(DEG W) 65.4 65.9 66.3 66.3 66.2 65.3 62.9 56.9 46.7 34.5 24.7 17.3 10.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 14 16 18 21 27 34 38 34 26 22 23 HEAT CONTENT 18 14 18 20 37 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 14. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 2. -6. -14. -20. -23. -27. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -14. -18. -22. -25. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -5. -14. -22. -27. -34. -39. -42. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912011 INVEST 08/28/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 38.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 9.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912011 INVEST 08/28/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912011 INVEST 08/28/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)