* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922011 08/28/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 31 35 42 49 55 60 63 67 71 75 V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 31 35 42 49 55 60 63 67 71 75 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 25 29 32 35 39 42 46 52 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 13 12 15 14 12 17 20 26 23 24 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 4 6 10 11 6 1 -5 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 102 98 97 125 125 145 138 127 111 87 82 61 38 SST (C) 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.7 27.9 28.1 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.2 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 127 128 129 133 136 139 136 137 139 139 139 138 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 127 129 134 138 142 138 137 137 135 134 133 126 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.6 -54.0 -54.4 -54.7 -53.7 -54.0 -53.3 -53.5 -52.4 -52.7 -52.0 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 6 6 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 80 81 82 80 79 75 72 71 68 65 66 66 71 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 65 79 84 83 88 81 79 85 90 88 83 94 200 MB DIV 145 113 126 120 95 105 49 33 45 73 74 127 113 700-850 TADV 5 3 2 13 17 12 14 9 15 9 7 2 -4 LAND (KM) 455 562 673 799 926 1202 1467 1702 1604 1553 1547 1620 1715 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.5 10.5 10.7 11.5 12.9 LONG(DEG W) 20.5 21.6 22.7 23.9 25.1 27.7 30.3 32.6 34.6 36.0 37.0 37.7 38.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 12 13 12 10 8 6 5 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 10 11 11 15 20 16 22 18 23 23 26 23 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 34. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 0. -4. -7. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -3. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 13. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 22. 29. 35. 40. 43. 47. 51. 55. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922011 INVEST 08/28/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 119.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922011 INVEST 08/28/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED