* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRENE AL092011 08/28/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 51 48 44 41 30 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 41 33 31 30 29 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 41 33 31 30 29 31 27 26 27 31 39 46 Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 35 45 54 52 63 69 67 62 52 28 13 6 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 2 5 5 -2 -9 -1 2 -3 -4 -6 -4 -6 SHEAR DIR 221 203 206 207 205 215 227 235 246 246 233 183 241 SST (C) 24.4 21.8 17.8 16.3 15.6 12.0 8.9 9.6 9.9 10.6 11.2 11.4 11.3 POT. INT. (KT) 104 90 77 75 74 71 69 68 67 67 64 60 62 ADJ. POT. INT. 92 81 73 71 71 69 67 66 66 65 62 58 59 200 MB T (C) -49.3 -49.1 -49.1 -49.0 -48.6 -48.9 -49.7 -49.7 -49.4 -48.1 -47.7 -47.9 -49.5 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 54 54 53 51 50 53 52 55 65 64 77 72 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 38 41 42 40 38 30 24 25 22 22 21 20 18 850 MB ENV VOR 113 135 149 157 156 127 133 130 161 165 219 279 211 200 MB DIV 140 155 91 60 68 65 73 45 49 58 33 14 -12 700-850 TADV 25 -12 -31 -49 -48 -43 -62 -78 -36 0 0 -6 -4 LAND (KM) -4 -113 -105 -214 -31 -280 228 711 1177 1529 1326 1268 1354 LAT (DEG N) 40.3 42.2 44.0 46.3 48.6 52.8 55.4 57.4 59.1 60.6 61.9 62.3 62.2 LONG(DEG W) 74.1 72.8 71.4 69.9 68.4 63.1 54.9 47.4 40.1 33.8 28.1 26.8 28.5 STM SPEED (KT) 20 21 23 25 26 27 25 22 19 16 9 1 4 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 23 CX,CY: 8/ 22 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -4. -6. -9. -13. -17. -19. -20. -22. -23. -24. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -6. -15. -22. -24. -24. -24. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 18. 19. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -4. -2. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -11. -13. -14. -16. -19. -21. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -19. -24. -28. -31. -35. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -1. -6. -12. -13. -15. -16. -17. -18. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 16. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -11. -14. -25. -37. -47. -59. -63. -65. -68. -71. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092011 IRENE 08/28/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 49.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 102.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092011 IRENE 08/28/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092011 IRENE 08/28/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)