* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922011 08/28/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 37 42 49 55 60 63 65 67 72 74 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 37 42 49 55 60 63 65 67 72 74 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 30 33 35 40 45 49 53 57 61 66 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 13 14 14 12 14 17 25 27 21 30 16 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 5 7 5 11 4 -2 -6 -2 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 107 92 125 127 126 132 123 116 93 85 56 28 355 SST (C) 27.2 27.4 27.7 28.0 28.2 27.8 27.9 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.2 27.8 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 127 130 134 138 141 135 136 139 140 139 138 134 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 131 135 141 144 137 137 139 137 134 133 130 124 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -53.9 -54.3 -54.6 -54.5 -54.2 -53.8 -53.3 -53.0 -52.5 -52.9 -52.6 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 80 81 80 76 75 72 72 70 66 66 67 68 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 70 84 87 83 86 87 82 92 92 91 87 92 98 200 MB DIV 128 141 126 94 101 87 42 23 20 52 35 115 97 700-850 TADV 3 2 12 19 13 10 16 15 10 4 -2 -9 -9 LAND (KM) 545 673 804 945 1089 1360 1636 1668 1596 1573 1601 1624 1601 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.6 10.6 10.7 10.8 10.9 11.0 11.0 10.9 11.0 11.4 12.6 14.1 LONG(DEG W) 21.5 22.8 24.0 25.4 26.7 29.4 32.1 34.3 36.0 37.3 38.2 39.2 40.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 13 13 13 12 10 7 5 6 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 10 10 14 18 15 21 16 22 23 25 23 20 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 0. -4. -7. -10. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 17. 24. 30. 35. 38. 40. 42. 47. 49. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922011 INVEST 08/28/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 118.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922011 INVEST 08/28/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED