* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRENE AL092011 08/28/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 45 41 38 34 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 36 32 30 30 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 36 31 30 30 30 29 26 25 27 33 40 47 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 41 52 58 67 68 61 57 50 33 20 14 12 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 1 -8 -10 -2 1 3 0 -3 -3 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 202 205 204 205 208 216 231 244 256 249 224 214 244 SST (C) 21.9 17.9 16.4 15.5 14.8 8.4 9.3 8.9 10.5 11.1 11.3 11.4 11.6 POT. INT. (KT) 91 78 75 75 73 68 69 68 67 64 62 62 63 ADJ. POT. INT. 82 73 71 71 70 67 68 67 65 61 59 60 60 200 MB T (C) -48.7 -48.7 -48.4 -48.4 -48.7 -49.1 -50.1 -50.0 -49.7 -49.1 -48.6 -49.3 -50.0 TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 51 50 49 50 47 52 49 59 62 70 65 61 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 40 41 37 36 32 27 25 23 19 19 17 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR 132 136 148 142 117 104 121 152 133 158 213 229 175 200 MB DIV 144 94 75 76 78 62 66 54 57 5 8 -51 -29 700-850 TADV -3 -17 -6 -42 -26 -74 -63 -74 -34 1 3 -3 13 LAND (KM) -154 -162 -260 -7 -97 -72 494 1042 1507 1404 1391 1343 1249 LAT (DEG N) 42.3 44.5 46.6 48.8 51.0 54.5 57.1 59.1 60.6 61.6 62.2 62.7 63.2 LONG(DEG W) 73.3 71.9 70.4 68.1 65.8 60.2 51.9 42.8 34.3 29.7 29.2 28.1 26.1 STM SPEED (KT) 23 24 25 27 26 25 26 24 17 7 4 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 22 CX,CY: 8/ 21 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -9. -13. -15. -16. -17. -18. -19. -20. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. -1. -11. -17. -19. -20. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 16. 18. 20. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -4. -2. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -17. -18. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -19. -24. -28. -32. -35. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -10. -14. -16. -19. -21. -22. -25. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 14. 15. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -12. -16. -25. -35. -47. -58. -62. -65. -70. -71. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092011 IRENE 08/28/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 57.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 93.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092011 IRENE 08/28/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092011 IRENE 08/28/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)