* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL112011 08/28/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 36 36 36 32 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 36 36 36 32 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 34 33 33 31 29 26 23 21 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 34 33 26 29 29 32 50 58 75 81 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 2 2 1 1 0 2 -1 2 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 62 76 91 122 153 190 207 216 220 228 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.4 28.1 23.3 18.5 15.5 13.1 10.9 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 138 144 140 95 77 72 70 68 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 122 120 119 124 118 83 71 68 67 66 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.7 -51.7 -51.9 -51.8 -52.5 -52.8 -52.3 -53.4 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 9 7 6 2 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 53 49 50 49 52 51 56 53 53 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -63 -38 -51 -65 -50 -70 -79 -43 -35 -59 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 11 8 1 14 29 44 43 44 18 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 4 -11 -9 0 -17 -14 1 -14 -37 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1007 960 844 719 602 348 237 225 42 433 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.3 33.7 35.1 36.6 38.1 40.7 43.0 45.1 46.8 48.6 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 65.7 65.7 65.6 65.3 64.9 63.6 60.9 57.3 52.5 47.1 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 15 15 15 15 16 18 19 20 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 25 31 33 4 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 14 CX,CY: -1/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 507 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 4. -5. -15. -25. -30. -34. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -15. -18. -20. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -3. -12. -22. -33. -40. -46. -51. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112011 JOSE 08/28/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 8% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112011 JOSE 08/28/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112011 JOSE 08/28/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)