* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922011 08/28/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 42 48 61 73 84 92 101 107 112 119 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 42 48 61 73 84 92 101 107 112 119 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 30 34 37 45 54 66 78 88 94 98 98 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 8 9 7 8 13 15 15 14 18 12 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 9 9 12 12 4 6 2 0 -2 0 5 SHEAR DIR 99 82 68 57 62 86 70 52 47 57 34 56 43 SST (C) 27.4 27.7 28.0 28.2 28.0 27.8 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 27.7 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 130 134 138 141 138 135 138 140 140 138 138 132 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 136 141 144 141 136 138 139 136 132 132 128 120 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.4 -54.7 -54.4 -53.8 -54.2 -53.3 -53.4 -52.9 -53.2 -52.0 -52.7 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 78 79 74 71 74 68 66 67 63 67 68 66 69 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 16 15 19 21 22 23 26 27 26 31 850 MB ENV VOR 86 83 82 86 90 83 87 92 99 102 95 97 105 200 MB DIV 135 119 96 113 101 65 30 28 28 72 109 94 95 700-850 TADV 2 -2 2 -4 -7 -13 -17 -19 -11 -9 -6 -4 -3 LAND (KM) 674 816 960 1106 1243 1522 1719 1616 1569 1547 1599 1629 1670 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 10.8 10.8 10.9 11.0 11.0 11.1 10.9 10.9 10.9 11.5 12.8 14.6 LONG(DEG W) 22.8 24.2 25.5 26.9 28.3 31.0 33.4 35.4 37.0 38.1 38.7 39.3 40.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 14 14 12 11 9 7 4 6 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 10 14 17 15 17 16 19 23 25 25 22 20 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 10. 13. 17. 20. 22. 26. 27. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. 13. 11. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 17. 23. 36. 48. 59. 67. 76. 82. 87. 94. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922011 INVEST 08/28/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 112.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922011 INVEST 08/28/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED