* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRENE AL092011 08/29/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 41 39 36 34 26 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 35 31 30 30 31 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 34 31 30 30 32 27 25 26 29 35 42 49 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 58 62 64 68 64 58 52 45 27 18 16 15 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 -4 -4 -1 -1 4 -2 -3 -3 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 202 205 201 207 209 215 223 244 266 248 229 244 264 SST (C) 18.2 16.6 15.8 14.9 12.5 7.6 9.0 9.7 11.0 11.3 11.1 10.7 11.2 POT. INT. (KT) 78 75 74 74 71 67 69 70 68 64 64 60 63 ADJ. POT. INT. 73 71 71 70 68 66 67 68 66 61 61 58 60 200 MB T (C) -48.8 -48.5 -48.4 -48.5 -48.9 -49.9 -50.0 -49.7 -48.9 -48.8 -50.0 -50.9 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 51 48 42 45 49 48 50 56 63 76 75 73 82 GFS VTEX (KT) 38 36 35 32 31 26 25 23 22 20 18 16 13 850 MB ENV VOR 139 147 149 126 122 125 127 152 154 209 231 196 237 200 MB DIV 111 80 81 74 59 53 53 51 49 3 -35 -69 -51 700-850 TADV -26 -3 -23 -27 -58 -55 -114 -40 -3 1 4 5 27 LAND (KM) -165 -251 -105 -59 -255 107 564 1131 1436 1256 1488 1435 1412 LAT (DEG N) 44.2 46.4 48.5 50.6 52.6 55.8 57.7 59.1 60.6 62.0 63.6 64.0 63.7 LONG(DEG W) 72.1 70.8 69.4 66.7 64.0 58.6 51.4 41.0 30.5 26.7 30.6 31.3 29.0 STM SPEED (KT) 22 23 25 27 24 22 25 28 19 7 7 2 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 22 CX,CY: 9/ 20 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 668 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -14. -14. -13. -13. -14. -15. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 7. 10. 9. 3. -8. -16. -18. -19. -20. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 16. 18. 19. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -14. -15. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -14. -19. -24. -28. -32. -35. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -4. -9. -12. -15. -15. -18. -20. -22. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 14. 15. 16. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -9. -11. -19. -29. -41. -52. -58. -62. -65. -69. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092011 IRENE 08/29/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 63.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 25.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 2.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092011 IRENE 08/29/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092011 IRENE 08/29/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)