* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL112011 08/29/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 41 41 40 36 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 41 41 41 40 36 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 41 41 39 34 29 28 23 21 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 31 28 29 32 35 52 69 80 88 79 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 5 3 1 6 0 5 -1 -2 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 78 103 129 156 179 202 220 224 236 241 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 28.1 28.2 25.5 20.8 16.3 13.5 10.6 13.5 12.4 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 141 143 113 85 73 70 68 71 70 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 122 124 126 100 78 69 67 67 68 68 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.6 -51.7 -51.6 -51.6 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 8 6 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 48 44 41 38 44 53 58 51 43 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 4 3 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -44 -51 -69 -64 -77 -67 -72 -36 -50 12 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 4 -15 18 15 9 34 20 28 11 3 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 -13 -14 -3 -16 -35 -80 -112 -120 -110 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 943 793 649 448 308 88 -10 243 729 1256 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.1 35.9 37.7 39.8 41.8 45.1 47.6 49.8 51.3 52.8 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 65.6 65.1 64.5 63.5 62.5 59.8 55.5 50.2 43.7 36.4 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 19 20 22 20 19 20 21 23 24 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 34 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 18 CX,CY: 0/ 18 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 507 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 2. -9. -21. -31. -37. -43. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -14. -19. -22. -25. -27. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 5. 6. 8. 13. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 0. -4. -12. -26. -41. -51. -60. -66. -69. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112011 JOSE 08/29/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112011 JOSE 08/29/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112011 JOSE 08/29/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)