* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922011 08/29/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 39 46 59 71 81 89 95 98 103 100 V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 39 46 59 71 81 89 95 98 103 100 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 30 32 39 47 57 65 69 71 71 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 12 14 13 8 7 5 3 11 13 22 26 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 6 4 5 10 9 9 11 6 0 -1 -1 -5 SHEAR DIR 73 45 36 66 79 79 143 262 197 217 196 197 207 SST (C) 27.6 27.9 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.4 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.7 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 132 136 139 140 137 136 136 131 128 129 130 133 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 139 143 144 142 141 140 132 127 125 125 127 128 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.8 -54.6 -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -52.2 -52.2 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 10 10 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 80 76 74 72 71 65 62 54 47 43 41 36 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 15 16 18 20 21 24 28 30 32 37 36 850 MB ENV VOR 91 88 92 92 94 90 96 95 99 86 81 75 76 200 MB DIV 142 91 106 115 98 51 36 22 49 53 51 70 24 700-850 TADV 0 -6 -8 -11 -15 -10 -3 -8 -6 -7 -6 -4 -1 LAND (KM) 849 961 1077 1216 1343 1637 1789 1728 1575 1493 1485 1468 1379 LAT (DEG N) 9.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 24.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 14 15 16 16 15 15 13 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 24 22 18 15 21 13 15 17 18 24 32 40 46 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 6. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 13. 16. 17. 21. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 14. 21. 34. 46. 56. 64. 70. 73. 78. 75. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922011 INVEST 08/29/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 110.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 41% is 3.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922011 INVEST 08/29/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)