* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL112011 08/29/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 32 32 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 32 32 29 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 33 32 30 28 24 24 24 19 17 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 31 36 34 42 64 81 92 89 79 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 4 3 3 1 0 -6 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 105 130 159 176 192 211 225 223 231 234 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.1 25.6 21.8 18.2 15.2 13.0 10.6 13.3 12.5 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 141 113 89 77 71 69 68 70 70 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 126 122 98 80 71 68 66 66 67 67 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.6 -51.5 -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -51.7 -51.3 -51.6 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 4 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 44 41 37 41 51 55 60 54 44 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -39 -56 -63 -90 -92 -78 -32 -23 -36 26 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -10 12 9 14 17 32 26 19 12 7 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -16 -17 0 1 -25 -48 -26 -72 -82 -103 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 758 623 447 330 206 77 -84 266 706 1178 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.2 38.0 39.7 41.4 43.1 46.0 48.3 50.1 51.4 52.6 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 65.2 64.5 63.7 62.7 61.6 58.9 54.9 50.0 44.1 37.5 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 18 18 19 18 18 18 19 21 21 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 20 CX,CY: 3/ 20 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 5. -10. -25. -36. -44. -51. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -16. -20. -24. -27. -30. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 4. 4. 6. 10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -14. -28. -43. -53. -63. -70. -76. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112011 JOSE 08/29/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 52.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 10.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112011 JOSE 08/29/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112011 JOSE 08/29/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)