* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWELVE AL122011 08/29/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 44 50 63 78 89 99 108 110 115 113 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 44 50 63 78 89 99 108 110 115 113 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 39 43 53 66 80 91 98 101 102 102 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 18 15 14 13 4 3 6 8 7 10 9 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -4 -3 -2 -1 3 6 5 -2 0 0 -6 -3 SHEAR DIR 60 61 66 62 56 86 68 180 100 124 159 134 148 SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.6 27.8 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.8 28.1 28.3 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 135 133 132 133 136 137 135 135 134 135 138 141 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 135 134 135 138 139 136 135 133 132 132 133 131 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -53.6 -54.1 -54.2 -53.9 -53.3 -53.2 -52.6 -52.4 -52.1 -52.1 -50.8 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 9 9 10 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 71 71 69 66 66 63 62 57 53 52 49 50 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 16 16 18 20 22 26 27 29 32 31 34 33 850 MB ENV VOR 86 79 74 68 70 75 72 80 77 86 80 87 85 200 MB DIV 77 83 88 57 18 46 74 95 92 78 72 93 84 700-850 TADV -2 -5 -6 -5 -8 -4 -1 4 -1 -2 6 1 1 LAND (KM) 1146 1277 1404 1511 1624 1826 1826 1641 1496 1401 1364 1319 1228 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 10.0 10.3 10.9 11.4 12.7 13.8 14.7 15.5 16.3 17.0 17.8 18.5 LONG(DEG W) 27.0 28.3 29.6 30.9 32.1 34.8 37.8 40.9 44.0 46.8 49.1 51.1 52.8 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 13 14 15 16 16 15 13 11 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 15 18 24 18 14 14 12 17 22 32 47 54 60 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 13. 14. 13. 14. 12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 10. 10. 13. 12. 14. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 14. 20. 33. 48. 59. 69. 78. 80. 85. 83. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122011 TWELVE 08/29/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122011 TWELVE 08/29/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)