* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWELVE AL122011 08/29/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 38 43 48 61 72 82 91 96 99 100 100 V (KT) LAND 30 33 38 43 48 61 72 82 91 96 99 100 100 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 38 41 50 61 71 77 81 85 88 91 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 22 18 17 11 1 4 5 10 10 2 7 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -8 -7 -5 -2 4 4 4 2 -2 3 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 63 73 72 66 61 324 210 191 148 159 260 208 141 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.6 27.8 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.9 28.2 28.4 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 131 132 136 137 135 134 134 137 141 143 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 132 131 133 138 140 135 133 132 134 137 135 133 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.0 -54.3 -54.1 -53.5 -53.4 -52.1 -52.5 -51.9 -52.3 -51.2 -51.2 -49.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 72 71 69 64 63 61 62 61 60 59 54 49 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 16 18 20 21 25 26 29 32 34 35 35 35 850 MB ENV VOR 78 71 62 57 55 55 51 60 65 67 74 80 87 200 MB DIV 74 72 51 26 14 52 89 114 125 51 94 63 128 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -5 -7 -7 0 0 2 2 2 0 1 2 LAND (KM) 1234 1336 1429 1536 1648 1828 1781 1612 1472 1372 1344 1273 1209 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.4 10.7 11.2 11.7 12.9 13.9 14.7 15.3 16.0 17.0 18.0 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 27.9 29.0 30.0 31.2 32.4 35.4 38.4 41.3 44.1 46.8 49.6 51.8 53.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 13 14 16 15 14 14 14 13 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 16 21 23 15 14 14 14 17 22 30 52 59 62 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 8. 8. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 8. 11. 14. 16. 16. 16. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 13. 18. 31. 42. 52. 61. 66. 69. 70. 70. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122011 TWELVE 08/29/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 26.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122011 TWELVE 08/29/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)