* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932011 08/30/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 31 36 46 57 59 59 60 57 52 49 V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 31 36 46 57 59 59 60 57 52 49 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 24 25 30 34 39 42 44 43 42 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 3 1 4 10 9 13 15 10 18 18 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 2 -1 -5 0 2 4 3 3 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 40 8 334 191 154 122 115 134 112 96 99 122 104 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.8 29.5 29.1 28.7 28.6 28.4 27.8 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 162 162 162 161 159 155 151 150 147 140 131 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -51.8 -52.2 -51.1 -51.5 -50.5 -51.1 -50.4 -50.8 -50.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 8 11 8 11 8 9 6 7 4 4 700-500 MB RH 75 70 70 70 70 70 71 68 67 61 59 58 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 9 10 11 11 13 10 8 9 9 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 26 38 39 42 46 45 63 62 71 46 39 27 31 200 MB DIV 71 78 45 61 73 49 57 47 63 33 30 -2 -6 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 1 3 -2 -5 0 -2 0 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 188 182 177 155 122 100 112 139 213 234 91 95 99 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.1 16.3 16.6 16.9 17.4 18.1 19.0 20.0 21.0 22.1 22.9 23.7 LONG(DEG W) 102.0 102.2 102.4 102.6 102.8 103.6 104.8 106.3 107.7 109.0 110.2 111.1 112.0 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 4 4 6 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 55 53 51 49 49 45 33 34 27 22 17 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 6. 15. 24. 32. 36. 39. 42. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 5. 3. 5. 4. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 26. 37. 39. 39. 40. 37. 32. 29. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932011 INVEST 08/30/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 51.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 142.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 69% is 5.9 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 46% is 5.9 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 27% is 4.8 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 27% is 7.8 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932011 INVEST 08/30/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##