* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWELVE AL122011 08/30/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 44 49 55 65 74 80 86 87 89 91 93 V (KT) LAND 35 39 44 49 55 65 74 80 86 87 89 91 93 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 42 46 51 61 69 73 74 76 78 80 84 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 13 5 4 5 8 8 8 11 14 16 3 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 0 2 1 4 5 4 4 2 0 2 2 SHEAR DIR 74 70 63 319 27 216 199 206 204 180 193 204 221 SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.8 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.8 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 133 134 137 137 135 136 135 135 139 142 145 148 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 136 138 138 137 138 135 133 135 139 138 137 135 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -52.4 -52.6 -51.9 -52.4 -51.2 -51.3 -50.5 -50.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 69 66 63 60 65 59 57 59 53 54 52 52 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 18 19 20 22 24 27 29 32 31 33 35 37 850 MB ENV VOR 58 53 47 42 36 30 43 42 49 48 62 70 76 200 MB DIV 68 45 16 16 24 68 72 90 70 120 57 70 46 700-850 TADV -6 -4 -6 -6 -5 3 -3 -2 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1485 1615 1748 1851 1870 1717 1520 1408 1377 1291 1145 989 873 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 12.0 12.4 13.0 13.5 14.5 15.3 16.1 17.0 17.9 18.9 19.7 20.5 LONG(DEG W) 30.8 32.2 33.5 34.9 36.2 39.7 43.4 46.3 48.8 51.5 54.4 56.4 57.7 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 16 18 16 14 13 14 12 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 14 12 15 13 11 16 22 29 44 55 62 65 68 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 19. 22. 24. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 10. 11. 13. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 14. 20. 30. 39. 45. 51. 52. 54. 56. 58. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122011 TWELVE 08/30/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122011 TWELVE 08/30/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 2( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)