* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932011 08/30/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 34 37 45 52 56 59 58 56 53 48 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 34 37 45 52 56 59 58 56 53 48 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 32 35 41 49 54 56 56 54 51 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 4 2 2 3 7 9 8 9 7 7 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 -4 -2 -1 0 2 1 3 1 5 1 SHEAR DIR 6 19 26 31 140 160 188 142 116 112 143 118 105 SST (C) 30.1 30.3 30.3 30.4 30.4 30.1 29.7 29.4 29.0 28.8 28.0 26.4 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 163 165 165 167 167 165 162 159 154 152 143 127 104 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 -51.4 -51.4 -50.8 -50.8 -50.2 -50.1 -50.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 10 9 10 9 10 8 7 5 4 2 700-500 MB RH 73 73 72 72 69 72 75 70 68 60 58 55 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 48 53 60 61 58 71 60 72 44 49 37 41 200 MB DIV 103 62 61 73 73 50 71 62 53 18 44 -16 -31 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 -3 -2 -1 1 0 -2 -1 -1 4 4 LAND (KM) 148 117 86 69 58 33 34 69 210 146 90 159 190 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.1 16.4 16.7 17.0 17.7 18.6 19.7 20.7 21.7 22.7 23.3 23.9 LONG(DEG W) 100.7 100.8 100.9 101.2 101.5 102.6 104.2 106.0 107.7 109.4 110.9 112.4 113.9 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 4 6 7 9 10 9 9 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 53 54 51 49 44 44 31 37 29 24 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 480 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 6. 15. 23. 31. 35. 37. 39. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 9. 12. 20. 27. 31. 34. 33. 31. 28. 23. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932011 INVEST 08/30/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 50.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 51% is 4.4 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 33% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 4.1 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932011 INVEST 08/30/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##