* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATIA AL122011 08/30/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 51 58 64 71 81 88 86 92 90 93 90 V (KT) LAND 40 45 51 58 64 71 81 88 86 92 90 93 90 V (KT) LGE mod 40 45 51 56 62 72 78 79 79 79 79 83 89 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 6 3 2 4 7 8 11 11 16 8 3 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 3 4 5 4 5 1 5 5 1 -2 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 58 101 47 22 287 232 253 213 207 206 249 224 207 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.8 27.7 27.8 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.9 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 138 135 137 135 136 139 142 144 146 150 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 140 140 138 139 137 136 136 136 138 138 141 141 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.0 -52.5 -52.6 -52.2 -52.0 -51.7 -51.6 -50.6 -50.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 65 63 60 62 62 61 61 58 56 56 51 49 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 19 20 22 23 23 29 31 28 34 33 37 34 850 MB ENV VOR 53 51 45 40 37 40 37 35 27 42 43 65 70 200 MB DIV 63 56 66 49 49 71 62 85 89 56 34 29 61 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -4 0 0 -4 -3 -5 0 2 3 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1661 1805 1835 1843 1747 1550 1404 1346 1297 1167 1082 889 738 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.5 13.0 13.5 13.9 14.8 15.7 16.6 17.3 18.1 18.9 19.9 21.1 LONG(DEG W) 32.6 34.1 35.5 37.2 38.8 42.3 45.7 48.6 51.0 53.2 55.4 57.4 59.3 STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 16 17 17 17 16 13 12 11 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 13 15 14 12 16 21 27 41 59 69 60 73 55 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 14. 17. 19. 21. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 10. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 7. 9. 6. 12. 10. 13. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 18. 24. 31. 41. 48. 46. 52. 50. 53. 50. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122011 KATIA 08/30/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122011 KATIA 08/30/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 4( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)