* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932011 08/30/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 38 49 50 57 57 56 54 45 38 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 38 49 50 57 57 56 54 45 38 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 32 35 40 45 48 49 47 44 40 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 6 6 7 10 11 12 9 16 11 15 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 1 -1 -1 -2 0 2 0 -1 1 0 SHEAR DIR 90 141 130 135 113 133 135 122 128 116 121 118 133 SST (C) 30.2 30.2 30.3 30.2 30.0 29.7 29.3 28.8 28.4 27.9 26.6 24.8 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 165 164 166 165 164 161 158 152 148 143 129 110 95 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -51.9 -51.9 -52.1 -51.2 -51.9 -50.8 -51.3 -50.4 -50.7 -50.2 -50.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 10 9 7 12 8 11 6 6 3 3 1 700-500 MB RH 75 73 72 72 72 76 72 70 65 59 60 57 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 10 9 9 10 13 9 11 10 11 12 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 44 49 55 56 50 71 65 76 62 57 41 36 25 200 MB DIV 47 59 72 54 46 59 44 48 37 35 4 -22 -32 700-850 TADV 3 2 2 2 0 -1 -3 -1 0 0 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 133 115 101 105 78 76 96 192 247 141 207 227 313 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.5 16.8 17.1 17.3 18.1 19.0 20.0 20.8 21.8 22.5 23.2 23.6 LONG(DEG W) 101.5 101.7 101.9 102.4 102.9 104.2 105.8 107.5 109.2 110.7 112.2 113.7 115.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 5 6 8 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 56 52 48 47 47 38 36 30 15 9 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 383 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 1. 6. 15. 23. 30. 33. 35. 36. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 1. 4. 3. 5. 6. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 24. 25. 32. 32. 31. 29. 20. 13. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932011 INVEST 08/30/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 50.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 50% is 4.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932011 INVEST 08/30/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##