* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATIA AL122011 08/30/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 56 63 70 77 89 98 103 105 106 107 106 107 V (KT) LAND 50 56 63 70 77 89 98 103 105 106 107 106 107 V (KT) LGE mod 50 56 62 69 77 90 97 100 98 95 94 97 101 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 6 6 2 4 9 15 8 8 7 13 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 0 3 2 3 9 0 -3 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 71 76 79 82 87 193 149 224 245 267 122 262 170 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.8 28.0 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 139 137 138 138 137 136 139 142 144 145 149 153 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 140 140 141 139 137 138 140 139 137 140 144 143 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -52.8 -53.0 -51.8 -52.3 -51.7 -52.1 -51.0 -50.8 -49.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 9 8 10 10 11 10 11 11 10 700-500 MB RH 60 62 62 61 60 64 59 58 57 54 52 50 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 19 20 22 23 26 28 30 31 32 33 34 38 850 MB ENV VOR 58 54 49 45 42 50 39 31 36 41 51 60 80 200 MB DIV 32 37 19 16 34 83 107 89 77 30 75 52 91 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 1 -2 1 0 2 1 -2 1 2 -1 LAND (KM) 1812 1806 1802 1683 1578 1411 1298 1256 1123 1056 955 783 639 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.9 13.3 13.7 14.1 14.9 15.7 16.5 17.4 18.4 19.5 20.8 22.1 LONG(DEG W) 34.6 36.2 37.7 39.4 41.1 44.5 47.7 50.6 53.1 55.1 56.7 58.7 61.1 STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 16 17 17 16 15 14 11 10 10 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 17 16 18 23 27 27 40 72 74 65 69 78 53 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 18 CX,CY: -16/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 479 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 20. 27. 39. 48. 53. 55. 56. 57. 56. 57. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122011 KATIA 08/30/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122011 KATIA 08/30/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 6( 6) 11( 16) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 2( 2) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)