* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932011 08/30/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 36 44 47 49 54 53 52 49 45 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 36 44 47 49 54 53 52 43 44 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 33 37 40 41 42 43 38 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 11 12 13 10 11 13 7 8 10 17 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 -3 -2 0 -2 0 4 0 1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 102 105 125 113 110 125 127 122 103 104 78 108 81 SST (C) 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.1 29.9 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.7 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 162 161 159 157 156 157 159 161 155 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -51.9 -51.4 -51.6 -51.1 -51.3 -51.0 -51.1 -50.9 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 9 7 10 9 11 10 9 8 7 6 4 700-500 MB RH 75 74 72 73 74 77 72 74 74 72 71 69 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 9 10 11 11 8 6 8 7 7 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 42 46 53 49 58 74 54 75 48 46 37 58 35 200 MB DIV 63 56 58 37 48 62 61 49 32 40 -11 22 27 700-850 TADV 2 2 1 -1 -3 -3 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 134 127 128 100 74 68 34 94 225 129 90 -1 3 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 101.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 7 6 7 8 8 6 4 3 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 61 58 53 52 50 41 27 41 34 30 28 0 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 451 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 1. 6. 15. 23. 30. 35. 38. 41. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -12. -13. -14. -15. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 19. 22. 24. 29. 28. 27. 24. 20. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932011 INVEST 08/30/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 54.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.6 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932011 INVEST 08/30/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##