* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATIA AL122011 08/31/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 55 61 67 73 85 90 98 98 101 103 101 99 V (KT) LAND 50 55 61 67 73 85 90 98 98 101 103 101 99 V (KT) LGE mod 50 55 61 67 72 82 88 91 91 91 92 96 100 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 4 3 6 3 1 4 9 5 7 7 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 1 1 2 5 6 12 3 1 -3 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 116 96 8 226 171 211 199 243 201 190 236 242 222 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 138 136 136 136 136 137 139 143 144 147 150 152 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 138 138 138 138 136 137 138 137 139 140 142 139 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -52.7 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -52.0 -51.9 -51.7 -50.7 -50.7 -50.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 9 11 11 11 11 11 10 11 700-500 MB RH 61 63 62 60 60 59 58 57 56 55 51 51 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 21 21 24 26 30 27 33 31 34 36 36 36 850 MB ENV VOR 62 52 49 47 52 43 33 34 45 47 58 63 87 200 MB DIV 33 23 23 48 75 110 95 82 51 33 32 56 86 700-850 TADV 2 2 2 0 0 1 -3 -2 2 5 0 1 1 LAND (KM) 1817 1772 1665 1571 1495 1341 1293 1238 1121 1045 865 705 586 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.5 13.8 14.3 14.7 15.4 16.3 17.2 18.1 19.1 20.2 21.2 22.1 LONG(DEG W) 36.6 38.2 39.7 41.4 43.0 46.3 49.1 51.6 53.8 55.8 57.7 59.7 61.8 STM SPEED (KT) 18 15 16 17 16 15 14 12 11 11 10 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 15 19 25 26 32 30 55 71 73 62 81 59 58 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 19 CX,CY: -17/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 5. 9. 8. 10. 12. 12. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 17. 23. 35. 40. 48. 48. 51. 53. 51. 49. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122011 KATIA 08/31/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122011 KATIA 08/31/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122011 KATIA 08/31/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 4( 4) 10( 14) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)