* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932011 08/31/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 38 45 48 51 52 50 47 46 47 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 38 45 48 51 52 50 47 39 36 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 30 34 37 40 41 41 41 35 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 10 13 9 8 12 12 17 10 15 12 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 -1 -1 1 -1 -1 1 1 -1 0 -1 6 SHEAR DIR 99 105 118 114 96 118 103 115 96 128 99 122 104 SST (C) 30.2 30.2 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.6 29.4 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 164 163 162 160 158 155 156 157 158 158 154 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.1 -51.4 -51.9 -51.1 -51.5 -51.0 -51.6 -51.0 -51.2 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 10 12 8 11 8 10 6 7 4 7 700-500 MB RH 75 74 74 76 78 79 76 72 69 68 64 64 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 9 9 10 9 6 5 6 5 4 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 56 53 58 67 62 65 60 50 38 48 41 58 200 MB DIV 57 38 43 35 61 49 36 35 27 27 9 -1 15 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 -2 -2 -3 -5 -1 -2 0 0 9 12 LAND (KM) 110 109 88 66 66 63 54 155 222 102 24 -10 -22 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.0 17.2 17.5 17.7 18.5 19.8 20.9 21.7 22.5 23.1 23.6 24.0 LONG(DEG W) 101.9 102.3 102.6 103.1 103.5 104.6 105.9 107.1 108.1 108.9 109.3 109.8 110.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 5 5 6 8 8 7 6 4 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 54 51 51 50 47 39 36 34 33 28 22 3 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 406 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 1. 7. 15. 23. 30. 34. 37. 40. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 20. 23. 26. 27. 25. 22. 21. 22. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932011 INVEST 08/31/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 50.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 41% is 3.5 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932011 INVEST 08/31/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##