* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATIA AL122011 08/31/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 63 68 74 85 90 93 98 99 100 100 93 V (KT) LAND 55 59 63 68 74 85 90 93 98 99 100 100 93 V (KT) LGE mod 55 59 62 66 70 78 85 89 90 92 95 97 97 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 7 7 5 10 15 3 9 1 15 9 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 1 2 0 1 8 1 -1 -4 0 0 SHEAR DIR 137 180 204 184 114 184 213 187 213 223 280 276 263 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.8 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.5 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 137 136 135 136 136 138 141 145 145 148 152 153 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 138 136 137 136 136 136 138 137 138 140 140 137 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -51.7 -52.1 -51.2 -51.7 -50.8 -50.7 -50.2 -49.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 10 9 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 61 61 61 60 60 61 59 59 55 56 52 51 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 20 22 25 27 30 31 30 34 32 35 37 33 850 MB ENV VOR 54 50 47 51 49 40 35 47 53 61 54 65 68 200 MB DIV 20 25 55 85 85 119 68 111 28 45 5 55 63 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 3 0 0 1 3 3 2 5 0 3 LAND (KM) 1769 1663 1573 1491 1409 1324 1326 1198 1113 971 853 781 766 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 14.1 14.5 14.9 15.2 16.0 17.1 18.1 18.9 19.9 21.1 22.4 23.7 LONG(DEG W) 38.3 40.0 41.6 43.3 44.9 47.8 50.4 52.8 54.9 56.6 58.1 59.6 61.1 STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 16 16 15 14 13 12 10 9 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 19 28 25 31 27 43 67 72 63 71 78 50 55 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 18 CX,CY: -16/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 10. 11. 13. 13. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 6. 9. 8. 11. 12. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 19. 30. 35. 38. 43. 44. 45. 45. 38. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122011 KATIA 08/31/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122011 KATIA 08/31/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122011 KATIA 08/31/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 5( 5) 10( 15) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 2( 2) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)