* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP912011 08/31/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 20 21 22 23 22 22 21 20 18 DIS V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 20 21 22 23 22 22 21 20 18 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 21 21 20 20 19 17 16 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 5 4 4 7 12 21 25 28 31 30 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 -4 -2 1 -4 -1 -2 -2 -2 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 158 169 184 171 243 271 281 301 300 298 284 289 277 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.9 27.7 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 140 141 141 141 142 144 142 138 136 136 135 135 133 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.1 -54.1 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -54.2 -54.4 -54.2 -54.2 -54.2 -54.5 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 54 55 49 48 47 47 44 43 38 36 37 39 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 2 2 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 2 2 0 -6 -8 -12 -20 -26 -27 -16 -6 -11 200 MB DIV 30 22 21 15 24 0 14 -5 0 1 14 16 6 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -4 -5 -6 -6 -6 -8 -11 -6 -5 -1 1 LAND (KM) 1275 1192 1114 1041 984 911 904 985 1097 1225 1272 1298 1271 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.4 10.4 10.5 10.5 10.7 11.1 11.4 11.8 12.1 12.6 13.3 14.5 LONG(DEG W) 147.7 148.9 150.1 151.4 152.7 155.4 158.0 160.5 162.8 165.0 166.7 168.0 168.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 13 13 13 13 12 11 10 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 26 27 31 32 36 40 40 43 35 38 40 40 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 20. 25. 29. 32. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -6. -9. -12. -13. -15. -16. -17. -18. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -12. -12. -13. -13. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -6. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP912011 INVEST 08/31/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 14.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP912011 INVEST 08/31/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##