* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932011 08/31/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 37 42 45 48 49 48 47 49 50 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 37 42 45 48 49 48 47 49 50 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 33 36 38 39 39 39 40 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 11 12 11 10 16 7 13 7 9 5 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -3 -1 0 -1 1 2 3 -1 4 1 SHEAR DIR 104 105 113 107 98 116 114 114 100 79 111 35 106 SST (C) 30.2 30.0 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.6 29.7 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 166 164 162 160 159 158 154 152 152 155 158 159 156 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 -51.4 -51.5 -51.1 -51.4 -51.3 -51.3 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 10 11 9 10 9 8 8 8 5 7 6 700-500 MB RH 76 77 77 78 76 76 73 72 73 70 66 62 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 9 9 10 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 57 56 61 72 71 54 73 57 62 48 63 57 80 200 MB DIV 31 29 19 38 51 60 55 35 56 9 25 1 18 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -4 -5 -2 -3 0 0 0 6 0 5 LAND (KM) 117 85 87 87 93 53 119 210 255 168 24 39 144 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 6 5 5 7 7 4 4 5 3 3 5 HEAT CONTENT 52 51 48 45 40 36 38 28 27 29 22 25 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 442 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 1. 7. 15. 22. 29. 33. 36. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 17. 20. 23. 24. 23. 22. 24. 25. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932011 INVEST 08/31/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 47.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 3.1 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932011 INVEST 08/31/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##