* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP912011 08/31/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 35 39 42 43 42 41 38 34 29 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 35 39 42 43 42 41 38 34 29 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 32 34 39 43 44 43 41 39 35 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 1 4 0 6 10 13 19 24 26 36 33 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -3 1 -3 -1 0 -1 -3 -1 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 147 62 47 180 312 316 322 311 305 295 279 262 249 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.8 28.1 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 141 142 144 148 150 148 145 143 143 144 143 143 139 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.1 -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -54.1 -54.5 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 9 10 700-500 MB RH 54 52 50 47 47 44 46 45 45 46 49 52 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 2 2 1 2 1 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 2 -2 -4 -4 -6 -11 -21 -24 -27 -19 -22 -18 200 MB DIV 30 29 22 25 18 14 -5 0 3 23 43 112 123 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -4 -4 -5 -5 -4 -3 -4 -4 -5 -2 0 LAND (KM) 1263 1185 1125 1088 1079 1111 1249 1446 1628 1797 1925 2006 2026 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 9.6 9.5 9.4 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.7 9.8 10.0 10.5 11.2 12.5 LONG(DEG W) 148.7 150.2 151.7 153.4 155.0 158.5 161.8 165.2 168.3 171.1 173.3 174.9 176.1 STM SPEED (KT) 12 15 16 16 17 17 16 16 14 12 10 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 26 30 34 45 47 49 45 44 48 52 64 60 59 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 20. 25. 28. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 14. 17. 18. 17. 16. 13. 9. 4. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP912011 INVEST 08/31/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP912011 INVEST 08/31/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##