* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932011 08/31/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 41 44 49 54 57 59 58 56 56 57 V (KT) LAND 30 28 32 35 38 43 48 52 53 52 51 42 37 V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 28 34 36 40 43 47 49 51 53 44 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 11 12 9 8 11 4 8 2 8 7 6 0 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 0 -5 -2 -1 0 0 0 -1 2 6 SHEAR DIR 122 135 131 135 129 127 163 103 51 88 100 69 69 SST (C) 30.1 30.0 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.5 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 165 164 162 161 159 158 157 157 157 159 160 156 149 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.3 -51.7 -51.7 -51.9 -51.1 -51.6 -50.8 -51.4 -50.8 -51.4 -50.8 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 12 10 9 13 8 10 7 8 5 8 4 700-500 MB RH 77 77 78 78 76 73 70 69 69 66 62 62 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 10 9 9 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 63 76 77 60 62 57 55 44 47 45 59 64 200 MB DIV 39 22 40 44 46 35 40 23 22 8 2 10 -3 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -2 -2 -3 -1 -1 0 1 4 6 11 LAND (KM) 22 0 0 9 8 53 171 210 144 75 7 -18 0 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 8 8 7 6 4 3 3 3 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 46 32 8 25 14 42 35 37 31 28 10 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 467 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 22. 28. 31. 34. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 14. 19. 24. 27. 29. 28. 26. 26. 27. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932011 INVEST 08/31/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 54% is 4.7 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932011 INVEST 08/31/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##