* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATIA AL122011 08/31/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 69 75 79 87 91 94 91 96 96 94 94 V (KT) LAND 60 64 69 75 79 87 91 94 91 96 96 94 94 V (KT) LGE mod 60 63 66 70 72 77 81 83 84 87 91 95 95 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 8 6 6 17 6 12 6 10 4 10 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 2 4 4 2 7 1 1 0 0 0 4 SHEAR DIR 199 174 157 176 198 187 191 198 171 260 149 277 183 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 136 137 138 140 143 142 145 148 151 152 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 137 135 134 134 135 136 132 133 136 138 137 137 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -52.5 -52.6 -51.6 -51.8 -51.0 -50.9 -50.0 -49.7 -48.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 9 10 11 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 59 59 59 61 61 60 63 56 56 50 52 49 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 24 26 27 27 30 31 32 28 35 34 36 38 850 MB ENV VOR 43 47 46 40 34 33 38 46 51 49 66 66 83 200 MB DIV 53 77 94 113 126 102 88 31 43 40 41 18 64 700-850 TADV 1 5 3 4 0 4 4 6 6 5 3 9 4 LAND (KM) 1558 1479 1401 1349 1313 1301 1241 1188 1118 988 865 797 792 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.8 15.1 15.5 15.8 16.7 17.9 19.0 20.0 21.0 22.0 23.0 24.0 LONG(DEG W) 41.7 43.3 44.9 46.3 47.6 49.9 52.1 53.9 55.2 56.7 58.4 59.9 61.1 STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 15 13 13 12 11 9 8 9 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 26 30 26 30 38 65 68 66 67 66 65 45 50 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 6. 8. 4. 9. 9. 10. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 19. 27. 31. 34. 31. 36. 36. 34. 34. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122011 KATIA 08/31/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 50% is 3.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 42% is 5.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 30% is 6.1 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 23% is 6.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122011 KATIA 08/31/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122011 KATIA 08/31/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 7( 10) 10( 19) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 1( 1) 6( 7) 15( 21) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)