* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932011 08/31/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 38 42 50 59 64 69 70 73 72 71 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 38 42 50 59 64 69 70 73 72 71 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 36 38 41 45 49 53 57 61 67 73 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 23 29 24 20 25 17 29 21 23 14 18 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -1 -1 -5 0 -2 1 -3 -4 -5 -5 -1 SHEAR DIR 300 282 292 294 284 286 300 286 290 278 220 212 193 SST (C) 30.2 30.4 30.7 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.7 30.6 30.8 30.8 30.9 31.1 POT. INT. (KT) 171 171 171 171 171 170 168 167 168 170 170 171 171 ADJ. POT. INT. 158 161 166 167 164 160 154 149 150 160 164 168 169 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -51.6 -51.7 -51.5 -51.2 -50.6 -50.2 -50.6 -50.7 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 9 7 9 7 8 700-500 MB RH 70 70 66 67 69 66 61 56 54 52 59 62 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 7 6 7 8 8 11 14 20 21 23 21 21 850 MB ENV VOR 7 3 -6 -6 7 -23 15 17 68 67 92 70 102 200 MB DIV 73 71 57 28 45 38 81 40 62 20 40 20 29 700-850 TADV 1 0 -6 0 0 -7 1 3 2 8 7 6 -2 LAND (KM) 287 339 408 379 323 263 242 250 258 379 371 267 139 LAT (DEG N) 24.1 24.7 25.2 25.7 26.2 26.9 27.5 27.5 27.1 26.2 25.8 26.7 28.2 LONG(DEG W) 87.0 87.9 88.8 89.7 90.5 91.8 92.9 93.3 93.6 92.9 91.4 89.5 88.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 9 8 6 3 2 3 6 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 127 76 45 70 166 130 86 77 80 66 115 67 74 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 5. 11. 18. 22. 27. 31. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -2. -5. -8. -8. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 12. 14. 11. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 12. 20. 29. 34. 39. 40. 43. 42. 41. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932011 INVEST 08/31/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 96.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932011 INVEST 08/31/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932011 INVEST 08/31/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)