* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP912011 08/31/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 25 28 33 36 37 38 38 38 35 30 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 25 28 33 36 37 38 38 38 35 30 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 24 27 31 32 32 31 30 29 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 6 3 3 10 18 19 24 25 21 25 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 -1 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -1 6 9 SHEAR DIR 78 93 107 96 343 316 318 313 306 286 276 247 261 SST (C) 27.7 27.9 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.0 28.0 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.1 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 143 145 149 150 150 147 147 146 147 148 148 146 144 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -53.3 -54.3 -53.8 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 53 50 47 48 48 46 44 43 42 50 51 50 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 1 -2 -2 -1 -8 -15 -22 -29 -32 -27 -17 -14 200 MB DIV 28 28 21 0 -5 3 -8 1 5 38 108 160 137 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -2 -2 -3 -4 -5 -3 -4 -4 -2 0 2 LAND (KM) 1269 1218 1189 1176 1192 1266 1438 1671 1861 2074 2260 2373 2447 LAT (DEG N) 8.9 8.7 8.5 8.4 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.6 8.7 8.9 9.3 10.3 11.8 LONG(DEG W) 149.9 151.5 153.0 154.7 156.4 159.9 163.4 167.0 170.4 173.6 176.3 178.4 180.2 STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 16 17 17 17 17 17 16 15 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 27 41 48 52 55 61 53 51 55 62 70 68 68 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 21. 28. 32. 35. 38. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -12. -12. -12. -13. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 8. 13. 16. 17. 18. 18. 18. 15. 11. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP912011 INVEST 08/31/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 44.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 15.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP912011 INVEST 08/31/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##