* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT EP082011 08/31/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 43 47 49 50 49 46 46 48 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 26 34 38 40 41 40 37 34 36 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 26 26 31 33 34 35 36 37 31 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 6 10 7 11 12 8 14 7 8 2 7 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 -2 -1 0 1 -3 -1 -5 0 0 N/A SHEAR DIR 138 129 127 130 129 126 69 95 81 104 58 105 N/A SST (C) 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.9 30.2 30.2 29.2 27.3 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 162 162 161 160 159 160 162 166 166 155 135 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.7 -51.7 -52.0 -51.6 -51.3 -51.5 -51.3 -51.2 -51.1 -51.2 -50.8 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 10 9 11 11 10 9 8 6 6 3 N/A 700-500 MB RH 77 79 78 78 76 76 72 72 69 66 59 58 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 70 85 90 76 66 72 47 57 33 46 24 43 N/A 200 MB DIV 26 38 40 56 57 70 4 44 5 7 2 11 N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 -3 -2 -2 -4 -3 -3 0 0 10 N/A LAND (KM) -28 -45 -49 -68 -56 47 109 127 94 45 7 0 N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.8 19.2 19.7 20.2 21.1 21.9 22.7 23.5 24.4 25.1 25.3 N/A LONG(DEG W) 102.8 103.3 103.7 104.3 104.9 105.9 106.7 107.6 108.5 109.8 110.9 112.1 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 8 7 6 6 6 7 7 5 6 N/A HEAT CONTENT 59 3 55 50 50 46 47 37 29 36 6 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 488 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 30. 35. 38. 40. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 18. 22. 24. 25. 24. 21. 21. 23. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082011 EIGHT 08/31/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 55% is 4.7 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082011 EIGHT 08/31/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##