* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATIA AL122011 09/01/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 69 74 78 84 89 93 95 100 96 99 97 91 V (KT) LAND 65 69 74 78 84 89 93 95 100 96 99 97 91 V (KT) LGE mod 65 69 73 76 78 82 84 86 90 95 98 99 96 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 4 3 2 5 3 9 6 5 7 8 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 4 6 4 9 6 0 -4 -1 0 5 7 SHEAR DIR 179 178 226 230 114 179 167 171 171 252 229 291 275 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.8 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 137 138 139 141 144 144 148 151 151 152 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 136 135 134 134 135 137 133 136 137 136 134 134 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.0 -51.7 -50.6 -50.5 -49.8 -49.3 -48.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 11 11 10 11 10 11 700-500 MB RH 60 58 59 60 59 59 59 54 51 50 48 52 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 25 26 26 27 28 31 31 32 35 32 37 39 37 850 MB ENV VOR 43 41 38 31 32 32 40 38 48 49 58 64 64 200 MB DIV 56 79 114 121 100 98 55 37 55 33 34 36 7 700-850 TADV 1 5 3 -1 0 3 3 7 -1 0 2 11 4 LAND (KM) 1463 1392 1334 1306 1283 1267 1182 1143 994 879 805 752 732 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.2 15.5 15.9 16.2 17.1 18.3 19.5 20.5 21.5 22.5 23.2 23.8 LONG(DEG W) 43.6 45.1 46.6 47.9 49.1 51.2 53.2 54.9 56.5 58.0 59.4 60.7 61.8 STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 14 13 12 11 11 9 9 8 8 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 29 27 31 39 50 71 71 62 67 73 55 51 61 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 18 CX,CY: -16/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 4. 5. 7. 4. 9. 10. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 19. 24. 28. 30. 35. 31. 34. 32. 26. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122011 KATIA 09/01/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 94.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 45% is 3.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 4.6 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 18% is 5.4 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122011 KATIA 09/01/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122011 KATIA 09/01/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 5( 7) 9( 15) 11( 25) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 2( 2) 3( 5) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)