* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932011 09/01/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 43 51 63 72 80 81 83 81 80 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 43 51 63 72 80 81 83 81 48 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 35 38 43 49 56 66 76 83 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 26 18 16 20 20 16 21 16 7 19 20 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 2 0 0 -1 0 -6 -5 -1 -2 -5 0 SHEAR DIR 290 300 293 271 266 293 257 287 234 221 195 208 214 SST (C) 30.4 30.6 30.8 30.9 30.9 30.9 30.9 30.8 30.8 31.0 31.1 31.1 30.6 POT. INT. (KT) 171 171 171 171 170 169 167 168 170 171 170 170 170 ADJ. POT. INT. 158 164 167 166 164 158 151 152 161 168 166 162 149 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.2 -52.2 -51.6 -51.2 -51.5 -50.6 -50.6 -49.9 -50.1 -50.2 -50.5 -49.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 10 7 10 6 9 6 9 3 3 700-500 MB RH 71 66 68 69 67 61 53 52 57 59 62 56 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 9 11 12 13 17 23 26 24 26 24 27 850 MB ENV VOR 8 1 0 8 3 -4 22 52 74 85 97 117 112 200 MB DIV 72 62 49 63 58 44 75 38 73 2 49 30 36 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -3 0 -6 -2 0 1 2 1 -5 -11 -18 LAND (KM) 325 390 377 328 277 222 222 245 238 189 106 11 -93 LAT (DEG N) 24.5 25.1 25.7 26.2 26.6 27.3 27.6 27.4 27.0 27.4 28.9 30.3 31.5 LONG(DEG W) 87.5 88.4 89.2 90.0 90.7 91.8 92.3 92.4 91.3 89.2 88.2 87.8 87.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 9 8 7 4 1 3 7 9 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 92 54 47 117 163 112 91 97 139 59 93 4 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 11. 18. 22. 27. 31. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 12. 14. 12. 13. 12. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 13. 21. 33. 42. 50. 51. 53. 51. 50. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932011 INVEST 09/01/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 94.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932011 INVEST 09/01/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932011 INVEST 09/01/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)