* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATIA AL122011 09/01/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 68 71 76 78 81 87 90 90 93 93 88 89 V (KT) LAND 65 68 71 76 78 81 87 90 90 93 93 88 89 V (KT) LGE mod 65 68 70 72 74 76 78 82 87 91 96 97 95 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 5 11 16 1 11 5 6 2 7 4 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 4 4 1 6 0 -2 0 5 3 11 1 SHEAR DIR 200 217 210 185 208 179 190 161 267 76 311 317 297 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 137 136 138 139 140 142 142 145 148 151 152 152 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 134 135 134 135 135 132 134 136 138 136 134 134 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.8 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -51.7 -51.8 -50.3 -50.7 -49.8 -50.0 -48.7 -49.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 11 11 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 61 58 59 58 61 62 56 58 49 51 51 51 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 27 26 24 28 29 26 32 33 33 35 36 34 39 850 MB ENV VOR 39 31 22 23 26 29 29 40 39 56 52 65 62 200 MB DIV 61 99 117 89 90 84 25 58 4 48 19 45 25 700-850 TADV 3 2 0 1 2 2 4 2 2 3 7 8 15 LAND (KM) 1381 1330 1293 1285 1283 1219 1177 1125 992 883 801 769 753 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.4 15.7 16.2 16.6 17.7 18.7 19.8 20.8 21.8 22.7 23.5 24.1 LONG(DEG W) 45.2 46.5 47.8 49.0 50.1 52.2 53.7 55.1 56.6 58.1 59.6 60.8 61.9 STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 13 12 12 10 9 9 9 9 7 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 27 31 38 48 69 70 67 65 66 69 51 51 59 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 1. -1. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 5. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 13. 16. 22. 25. 25. 28. 28. 23. 24. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122011 KATIA 09/01/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 39% is 3.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122011 KATIA 09/01/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122011 KATIA 09/01/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 4( 6) 6( 12) 8( 19) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 1( 1) 3( 4) 7( 11) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)