* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932011 09/01/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 37 45 53 61 65 71 70 71 67 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 37 45 53 61 65 71 50 39 33 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 32 33 35 39 44 50 57 43 35 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 32 26 15 20 20 13 17 10 16 18 16 20 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 0 0 0 1 -2 -1 0 -1 -3 -4 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 297 317 278 263 283 262 264 186 227 165 213 205 256 SST (C) 30.5 30.7 30.8 30.9 30.9 31.1 31.2 31.2 31.2 31.2 31.3 31.3 31.3 POT. INT. (KT) 170 170 170 169 169 169 168 167 166 167 167 166 165 ADJ. POT. INT. 158 162 161 161 160 161 159 155 153 157 157 154 153 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -51.8 -51.4 -51.9 -51.8 -51.5 -50.9 -50.6 -50.3 -50.2 -50.1 -50.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 8 8 5 7 4 7 4 4 0 700-500 MB RH 70 67 71 69 67 60 53 51 50 59 62 55 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 14 16 20 22 25 22 24 24 850 MB ENV VOR 2 -6 5 -1 -22 5 -8 36 35 96 97 122 92 200 MB DIV 54 58 58 58 43 79 53 92 35 71 33 33 15 700-850 TADV -1 1 0 -6 -6 0 0 0 0 -5 -2 -8 -3 LAND (KM) 366 412 345 294 246 144 48 16 8 5 -12 -14 -15 LAT (DEG N) 24.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 88.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 5 5 4 3 1 0 2 2 0 0 HEAT CONTENT 69 42 45 65 90 80 40 16 11 8 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 22. 27. 31. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -12. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 11. 14. 11. 11. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 15. 23. 31. 35. 41. 40. 41. 37. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932011 INVEST 09/01/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 62.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 23.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932011 INVEST 09/01/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932011 INVEST 09/01/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)