* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATIA AL122011 09/01/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 69 72 74 79 83 86 90 93 89 92 89 V (KT) LAND 65 66 69 72 74 79 83 86 90 93 89 92 89 V (KT) LGE mod 65 66 67 68 69 70 72 76 81 87 92 94 94 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 10 12 9 10 5 5 3 3 11 7 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 3 3 7 0 4 -3 1 3 2 5 1 SHEAR DIR 218 231 212 225 226 191 228 184 188 342 10 305 24 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 140 141 143 144 145 148 149 151 151 152 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 137 136 136 136 136 134 136 136 137 136 137 134 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.2 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.1 -51.0 -51.0 -50.2 -50.1 -49.4 -49.7 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 59 60 62 59 62 60 54 53 52 49 49 49 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 25 23 28 28 28 30 33 32 35 37 33 40 37 850 MB ENV VOR 28 21 21 19 17 24 32 44 53 60 72 69 81 200 MB DIV 92 123 92 87 88 61 62 43 15 19 27 -1 49 700-850 TADV 0 -2 1 0 3 2 10 4 3 0 4 8 2 LAND (KM) 1298 1263 1230 1245 1219 1144 1100 980 872 762 646 609 631 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.6 15.9 16.4 16.9 18.0 18.9 19.8 20.8 21.6 22.1 22.9 23.8 LONG(DEG W) 46.9 48.3 49.6 50.6 51.6 53.4 55.1 56.5 57.8 59.3 61.0 62.5 63.8 STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 12 11 11 10 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 33 40 60 73 74 75 63 69 78 62 53 67 61 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 675 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 12. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 5. 7. 8. 5. 10. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 9. 14. 18. 21. 25. 28. 24. 27. 24. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122011 KATIA 09/01/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 56.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122011 KATIA 09/01/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122011 KATIA 09/01/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 3( 5) 5( 10) 7( 16) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 1( 1) 1( 2) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)