* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932011 09/01/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 36 40 48 57 67 71 72 73 74 69 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 36 40 48 57 67 71 72 73 74 69 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 34 39 44 51 58 64 69 72 73 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 14 20 21 14 12 5 18 11 20 13 14 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 2 -2 0 -3 0 -1 -4 -5 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 303 258 249 270 271 212 189 182 178 160 211 233 330 SST (C) 30.8 30.9 31.0 31.0 31.0 31.0 31.1 31.1 31.0 31.1 31.1 31.1 31.0 POT. INT. (KT) 171 172 170 169 169 167 166 166 166 167 166 168 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 168 169 166 161 158 153 152 152 150 155 152 157 158 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.8 -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 -50.9 -50.9 -49.8 -50.2 -49.4 -49.7 -49.3 -50.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 7 9 4 8 5 8 3 5 1 700-500 MB RH 68 68 60 55 56 51 53 52 59 60 55 56 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 11 12 12 15 16 20 24 26 25 25 27 25 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -5 -10 -28 -18 9 11 45 65 92 101 88 55 200 MB DIV 47 55 62 42 39 77 26 70 32 41 2 9 15 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -10 -9 -1 -1 1 0 0 -3 -4 -3 0 LAND (KM) 345 262 178 147 135 129 98 98 104 83 33 52 97 LAT (DEG N) 26.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 89.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 8 5 4 2 1 0 0 2 1 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 115 92 90 78 57 28 16 16 15 14 4 9 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 11. 18. 22. 27. 30. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 6. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -10. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 11. 13. 12. 12. 13. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 19. 27. 37. 41. 42. 44. 44. 39. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932011 INVEST 09/01/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 86.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932011 INVEST 09/01/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932011 INVEST 09/01/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)